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Market Indicators....
(DOW
JONES, S&P500,
NASDAQ,
NASDAQ 100,
TICK & TRIN)
Οι διακυμανσεις της ευρυτερης αγορας αλλα και των διαφορων
sectors, επηρεαζουν καθε μια ξεχωριστα τις τιμες των μετοχων. Το να γνωριζουμε
τι γινεται και που βρισκετε η αγορα σαν συνολο, ειναι παρα πολυ σημαντικο. Οι
μετοχες εχουν την ταση ως επι το πλειστον να κινουνται προς την ιδια κατευθυνση
με την κατευθυνση της ευρυτερης αγορας ιδιαιτερα “short-term". Επισης ειναι
επιρρεπεις στις μεταβολες και διακυμανσεις των "ομαδων" στις οποιες ανηκουν.
Αντιστροφα καθε μια μετοχη μπορει να επηρεασει τις υπολοιπες στην ιδια “ομαδα”
(sector). Εαν και ποσο θα επηρεασει τις υπολοιπες μετοχες της “ομαδας” εξαρταται
απο το ποσο μεγαλη ειναι η κεφαλοποιηση της μετοχης, ποσο δημοφιλης ειναι στον
συγκεκριμενο τομεα, αλλα και το μεγεθος της διακυμανσης της τιμης της. Οσο
μεγαλυτερη ειναι η κεφαλοποιηση μιας μετοχης τοσο μεγαλυτερη ειναι η επιρροη της
στον συγκεκριμενο τομεα.
Η εξοικειωση καθε trader με τα σημαντικα τεχνικα σημεια της
αγορας και την επιρροη τους στις μετοχες αποδεδειγμενα βελτιωνει την αποδοση
καθε trader αλλα και τον/την προστατευει απο παγιδες και λαθη στο short term
trading.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Ο Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average), ειναι ο δημοφιλεστερος
δεικτης στον κοσμο. Ο Dow μετραει την συνολικη δραστηριοτητα τιμων των 30
μεγαλυτερων εταιριων των ΗΠΑ. Καθε μια απο αυτες τις εταιριες αντιπροσωπευει
καποιο μεγαλο βιομηχανικο τομεα, ετσι ωστε ο δεικτης απεικονιζει μια
ισορροπημενη εικονα της αγορας. Ο Dow ειναι ο πιο δημιφιλης δεικτης απο ολους
τους δεικτες που υπαρχουν, οχι μονο γιατι ιστορικα ειναι απο τους παλαιοτερους
αλλα για την απλοτητα του και το οτι αντιπροσωπευει τις καλυτερες εταιριες των
ΗΠΑ.
Δυο πολυ σπουδαια γεγονοτα για τον Dow στην δεκαετια του ’90
ηταν η κατακτηση των 10,000 μοναδων για πρωτη φορα, και ο συνυπολογισμος δυο
μετοχων του NASDAQ (INTC & MSFT) στον δεικτη, για πρωτη φορα στην ιστορια του
Dow. Μεχρι προτεινος μονο μετοχες που ανηκαν στην λιστα του NYSE (New York Stock
Exchange) μπορουσαν να συνυπολογιζονται στον δεικτη Dow. Αυτη η σημαντικη αλλαγη,
ειναι αποτελεσμα των νεων Οικονομικων συνθηκων αλλα και μελλοντικων, ετσι ωστε ο
δεικτης να απεικονιζει οσο το δυνατον καλυτερα τις Οικονομικες διακυμανσεις.
Η λιστα του Dow Jones Industrial:
**Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Component Lists
(καντε κλικ εδω)
Ο δεικτης Standard &Poor’s 500
Second to the Dow, the Standard & Poor’s 500, or S&P500, is a
widely followed index comprised of a diverse group of 500 top equities traded on
U.S. Stock Exchanges. Unlike the Dow that only measures the combined movement of
30 companies, the S&P500 measures a broader spectrum of price activity in
equities, which reflect depth and reach of the money movement in to, or out of,
500 top stocks traded across different exchanges – NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX.
The S&P500 Index is the basis of the mighty S&P500 Futures
Contract, traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Institutions and individual
participants of the market use the highly liquid S&P500 Futures Contract as a
trading vehicle to take positions or even to hedge their equity holdings in
anticipation of the equity market’s general direction. The price action of the
S&P500 Futures contract itself is a popular indicator used by traders to
anticipate future market direction.
NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ-100 Index
NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The NASDAQ Composite Index began in
1971 with a base value of 100. Since then, this index has risen to over a level
of 5000, achieved in year 2000. This index is reflection of the combined
movement of over 4,000 stocks traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market, both Domestic
and International. The NASDAQ is one of the 3 main stock market indices commonly
followed by the investing public. It is characterized as the index that tracks
the more speculative issues in the world of equities, and thus, has historically
reflected a higher level of volatility and risk in comparison to the other 2
common measures of the market (the Dow and the S&P500). Because the index
contains over 4,000 stocks, it is one of the broader measures of the market.
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NASDAQ-100 (NDX). The NASDAQ-100 Index, or the NDX,
measures the combined price movement of 100 of the largest non-financial stocks
traded on the NASDAQ. Unlike the Dow and S&P500, the selection process of the
components in this index is measured by the size of its market capitalization or
the collective dollar value of each company’s shares. The NDX has a very high
correlation to the NASDAQ Composite. These two indices have historically moved
in the same direction and magnitude over 90% of the time.
The NDX is the basis of the NASDAQ-100 Futures Contract, also
traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Like the S&P500 Futures, traders use
the movement of the NASDAQ Futures itself as an important tool to anticipate the
movement of and direction of individual stocks, particularly if these are
technology related issues.
Sector Indices
While stocks have a tendency to move together in the same
direction, sectors, or groups of stocks, normally go through a rotational
process, as some sectors are stronger or weaker than others during certain
periods of time. Stocks within the same sector are very likely to trend or move
in the same direction at once. It is beneficial for a trader to know which
sectors are experiencing strength or weakness for the given time period.
In selecting individual stocks to trade, familiarizing
yourself on the condition of its peers within the same sector by monitoring
sector indices is crucial to building enough evidence to initiate a trade on an
individual stock.
In addition, understanding the rotational corrective process
that the broad market undertakes on a daily basis is key to an in depth
perception of the markets.
Some examples of Sector Indices and their corresponding
symbols:
BKX – Banking
BTK – BioTech
OIX – Oil
SOX – Semi-Conductor
XAU – Gold/Precious Metals
NWK – Networking
TICK Indicator
The NYSE and NASDAQ TICK Indicators are a tool traders use to
measure the breadth of a market’s short-term direction. The TICK counts the
number of advancing versus declining stocks based on whether these stocks are on
an UPTICK (upward momentum) or a DOWNTICK (downward momentum). TICK is neutral
at Zero (0) and becomes increasingly bullish as it goes up (+100, 200, 300…
+900) and bearish as it descends below zero (-100, -300…-900). As a rule of
thumb, consistently high TICK readings on a daily basis suggest a broad
participation in a trend that likely has upward bias, and conversely,
consistently low TICK readings on a daily basis suggest broad selling in a
market that likely has downward bias.
Traders also use the TICK readings to measure intraday
saturation. For example, an extremely high TICK (+1000) reading suggests that a
market has expended a lot of energy and is likely to pause, slow in momentum or
pull back. Conversely, an extremely low TICK (-1000) reading suggests a
temporary saturation of selling.
TRIN Indicator
The TRIN, also known as the "ARMS" Index (named after its
originator, Dick Arms) measures the breadth of the markets participation, and,
unlike the TICK, includes in its calculation the volume of advancing and
declining stocks. The TRIN is a popular tool used by traders to help determine
temporary overbought and oversold conditions by taking its averages over a 3, 5
or 10 day period. High TRIN averages are consistent with dominantly downtrending
markets and vice versa. The calculations are done from the NYSE Listed stocks
but most traders see a strong influence in the NASDAQ market as well .
On the short-term and intraday basis, traders use the TRIN to
help determine the day’s directional bias. High TRIN readings are associated
with dominantly down days and low TRIN readings are associated with dominantly
up days. Accepted norms for TRIN are readings of 1.0 are a neutral market. Less
than 1 (0.9 – 0.3), is considered bullish while higher than 1.0 (1.1- 1.8) is
considered bearish. Again, extremes in TRIN readings may indicate a market pause
or reversal. The TRIN is a very versatile tool traders use to help remind them
of the market’s favored direction based on its breadth and corresponding
volumes.
TRIN is a Very Bearish 2.07 – well above 1.0 Neutral
August 2003
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